let’s break down the steps that define

the u.s. diaper market annually so you’re going to have to go ahead and

think about three things first your total population in which all your

customers lie your actual customer segmentation and then the number of

diaper is that each of the segments would purchase so the total population

of the u.s. is about 300 million people if you assume evenly distributed

populations by year and an average life expectancy of 0 to 80 that brings you a

three point seven five million people in each year let’s round that to four

million for simplicity sake and move on from there

all right let’s get to customer segmentation the u.s. diaper mark is

probably split between infants and the elderly and let’s define infants as

people from 0 to 3 and the elderly is people from 75 to 80 so between the ages

of 0 to 3 assuming this evenly distributed population we have about 12

million possible customers but within those 3 years 0 to 1 1 to 2 and 2 to 3

you have slightly different take-up rates of diapers so let’s say that from

0 to 1 100% of 4 million infants use diapers

from 1 to 2 another 100 percent and another 4 million youths diapers and

from 2 to 3 75% so 3 million youths diapers so the first part of our

customer segment infants makes up 11 million total possible customers the

second part adults 75 to 80 are 5 total years of lifespan times you’re 4 million

people per year gives you a 20 million total customer base and let’s assume

that about 10 percent of those people actually use diapers as well so now you

have your 2 million plus your 11 so 13 million total possible customers within

each of these segments we actually have to think about who uses how many diapers

and I’m going to go ahead and assume that amongst infants you have a

decreasing number of diapers used as they get older so if you take your

original 4 million people from the age of the 0 to 1 they use diapers and

assume that they use them 7 they use 7 diapers per day that gets you to about

28 million diapers let’s say that from 1 to 2 you

slightly fewer diapers so six per day and you get to 24 million and from two

to three you also use slightly less again so let’s say five you have three

million people from two to three by your five diapers per day so that’s 15

million so 24 plus 28 plus 15 gets you to 67 million and let’s do the same

exact process just for people who are age of 75 to 80 we said that there are

two million people who fall in that category who fall within the market for

diapers and assume let’s assume that three those who lose about three diapers

per day that’s an additional six million diapers which gets us to a total 73

million diapers use per day now the question originally asked and it’s

always important to keep scope in mind how many diapers were used per year so

let’s multiply or 70/30 million by 365 and get to our final answer because

we’re doing this just on top of our head let’s break it down 73 million times 300

is 73 times 3 which is 219 million times 100 which is 21 point nine billion plus

60 times 73 which is six times 73 which is roughly 4.4 billion so that gets us

to twenty one point nine plus four point four that’s twenty six point three

billion and we have to add our final five days and five days times 73 million

is 365 million so let’s add another point four billion to get to a final

total of 26 point seven billion diapers sold in the US per year